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Welcome to Load FM Writes!
Thanks for stopping by and visiting my website. After years of building video content on YouTube and Twitch, I’ve decided to have a go at a bit of writing too! We’re going to have a mix of Football Manager articles, football rambles, stadium reviews, behind the scenes thoughts and written article versions of a few YouTube videos. I hope you’re looking forward to staying up to date as I take my first venture into the written content world. My latest posts and key links can all be found on the sidebar to the left of this article. 👍
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Reliving FM09 Nostalgia With Hamilton Academical! Part 1.
Over the past couple of months, I’ve been feeding my Football Manager Nostalgia bug with a Football Manager 2009 save off camera. I’d been playing the game to learn the ropes again, ahead of a planned Luton Town save to relive the -30 season in 2008/09. However, I’ve become addicted to my warm up save with Hamilton Academical and thought I’d share how it’s going with you.
Why Hamilton? Well the answer is simple. It was their debut season in the Scottish Premiership after promotion with two hot prospects in central midfield. James McArthur and James McCarthy both became Premier League regulars in the real footballing world, but could we help them and several other young talents at the club reach their full potential in Scotland?
Now this blog will run alongside season overview videos on my YouTube channel. The first of those was released yesterday (you can find it below this paragraph) and detailed what we found when starting the job, as well as a review of our first season. I’d recommend you watch that video for an overview of the save so far, before we dive into a few areas in a bit more detail in the rest of this blog!
Save Introduction and Season 1 Overview Video Whilst we won’t reflect too much on the things covered in the overview, I will show you both the squad list and league table to reflect on a few key stats…
Our players stats this season clearly show our deficits. We’ve become incredibly reliant on our solo striker to do most of the scoring, which thankfully Richard Offiong did regularly. We also struggled to get the best out of most players consistently and an enforced mid-season tactical change didn’t help with that. Crucially though, we worked early to tie down our key young stars to maximum 5 year deals. The likes of Gibson, Easton, McArthur, McCarthy and Offiong, as well as several of our first season signings, are all now tied down until at least 2013.
We finished in 7th place after a season of two halves. During the first half of the season, we really struggled for a variety of reasons. The main one was an injury that kept James McArthur out for 10 weeks. This became a severe issue due to our possession based tactic that relied heavily on McArthur as a creative force. His replacement, Rocco Quinn, was so poor that I decided to sell him in January and adjust our tactical instructions to get away from an impending relegation battle. Alex Neil often flattered to deceive in possession too! With our January sales and signings, we moved to a more direct style of play to ensure safety. It was incredibly effective, so let’s take a more in-depth look at it…
The McArthur injury and the inconsistent early season form from both Alex Neil and Rocco Quinn led us to this tactical style from around November. We stuck with the same formation all season, largely due to the sheer number of central midfielders at the club. As most of them performed poorly, we switched the combination to include Simon Mensing, a more naturally defensive style of player. He sat deep in a midfield three, which allowed McArthur and McCarthy to provide creativity for a more direct and slightly wider style of play. This was aided by two brilliantly performing full backs. Young James Gibson has probably developed more quickly than either of the stars or the highly regarded Brian Easton in the first season. Gary Irvine was a very cheap signing from second tier St Johnstone and has quickly established himself as a key player on the right of the back four too. In addition to Irvine, let’s look at the rest of our transfer business from our first season…
When joining the club, we immediately saw problems on the right hand side of the team. We had just one right back, who was away at the Olympics for the start of the season. Worse was to be found on the right of midfield though, where we had no senior players at all. We immediately addressed that by signing three players to cover those positions, largely thanks to the sales of slower, excess central defenders that wouldn’t fit our planned tactical style. Getting 100k for David Elebert was a huge and unexpected bonus, significantly increasing our original 10k transfer budget. We also sent Paul McGowan back from his loan to Celtic, as he was a worse striker than Offiong but earning twice the amount of anyone else at the club. These sales covered the fees and wages of the three signings that balanced the squad, before we spent the remaining budget on young development players such as Leigh Griffiths and Sean Morrison, as well as one versatile utility signing in George McMullan. In January, we got a fairly big fee for the disappointing Rocco Quinn and signed another young player for a fraction of the cost in his place. From the 95k profit we’ve made, we can now activate the 50k clause in Tomas Cerny’s loan deal, to sign the first choice goalkeeper permanently!
We finish by meeting the best star from our end of season Youth Intake, as well as some grim financial news. Adam Ferguson, pictured during his loan midway through the following season, has the ability and determination to become a star in the future. He’s been tutored by Simon Mensing for a period of time already, which has had a great impact on his mentality.
The news we must finish on is financial though. Due to staying up, the board were required to install under-soil heating at our home stadium. This has remarkably cost over 3.5 million, leaving us in over 2 million pound of debt ahead of the summer transfer window. With Easton, Gibson, McArthur and McCarthy all wanted by several English clubs and the Old Firm, we’re going to need some strategic sales elsewhere in the squad to help keep most of them here! Despite that though, I’d like to find a natural holding midfielder and adjust back to a more possession based style of play next season if possible.
That’s my update for our first season with Hamilton Academical in Football Manager 2009. I’ll be back with another YouTube season review video and a blog here once season two is complete. Don’t forget to follow this blog and subscribe to the YouTube channel to stay up to date. For now though, thanks for reading as always and I’ll see you again soon.
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FM24 English Points Deduction Challenges
For some of us, we like to put ourselves through the ringer with Football Manager, don’t we? With that in mind, we already know that three sides from the playable English leagues are going to have points deductions at the start of FM24. Today, we’re going to talk a bit more about the teams and why you should perhaps consider managing them. Very quickly before we do though, a quick word for our partners at Fanatical. You can pre-order FM24 with 18% off, including full beta access by clicking here. Let’s go and talk about our first club though.
First up, it’s the club who were subject of my final FM23 Twitch save but why? Because like another side a bit later on, they had a points deductions last season too! The club we’re talking about is Reading and they were relegated to League One last season, largely due to the points they were deducted. They’re already having problems off the pitch this season and there’s been a lot of change on the field too. When I recorded the YouTube video version of this blog around 6 weeks ago, Reading had only actually been deducted one point (with a further three suspended). Since then though, the chairman again failed to deposit the money necessary to pay wages and their total points deducted for the season now sits at four. Near the start of this season in real life, they won their first competitive league match for six months and in Ruben Selles, they’ve got a man who last year managed part of a Premier League season with Southampton. A large turnover of players occurred during the summer. This was partly due to a number of loan players leaving after last season, in addition to the lifting of a transfer embargo. Despite the new manager and players at the club, it’s been a tricky start so far. It certainly won’t be an easy challenge either financially or in terms of succeeding in what is a very competitive third tier of English football. Of course there is another side with a points deduction in this League which we’ll discuss a bit later on. The difference here though is that Reading are yet to have a takeover, so should be pretty cash-strapped in FM24.
Now we’re going to move to another side in the same division that will start the game on minus eight points. Yes, it’s been another chaotic year for Wigan Athletic. A team that had the brief excitement and joy of bouncing back from League One to the Championship in 2022, only for the money to fade away and the club to fall back down again last season. Points deductions were a significant part of the feature last year and they start this campaign on minus eight too. Several late wage payments from the previous owners were the main cause, albeit new owners have now come in and it does look like the club is finally working a bit more sensibly. The Latics have left the plan of attracting big name signings on massive money to a more considered squad approach, with players that are working hard under club Legend Shaun Maloney. Will you be the man to displace him from his seat? If so, you’ve got the chance to manage a squad with high potential and a few players that remain from that League One title success a couple of seasons ago. I don’t suppose you could replicate that from a points deduction start!
If you want to experience a double digit deduction though, you might have to drop a bit lower down the divisions and in to non-league. Worryingly, we almost didn’t get the opportunity to manage this side in FM24. Let’s talk about why. I don’t think there’s many people that don’t know what’s been going at Southend United this summer. Former owner Ron Martin caused difficulties on and off the pitch. He was apparently happy to sell the club for a pound but no movement and frustrating stadium deals made a takeover harder for several parties. This backdrop had been going on for a while too, making it a miracle that Southend finished where they did in the league last season. They’ve had several HMRC winding up court dates over the past twelve months, which had been adjourned until the first week of October 2023. If there had been no successful takeover or payment of the club’s tax debt by this date, Southend United could have been liquidated and no longer in existence. With that in mind, you have to give huge credit to the players and the coaching staff there who have probably done more than any of us could in FM at the start of this season. At the time of the planned court date, if it weren’t for a ten point deduction, they would have been in the National League playoff places. This is made even more remarkable when you consider the incredibly strained squad size and resources, with the club naming as few as two substitutes for some of their games! The good news though, is that just a day before the scheduled court winding up order, a takeover was agreed for Southend United. The new owners paid off the HMRC debt and the club could finally look forward to having a future. This means you can now manage Southend United in FM24, but it won’t be easy. If you take on the job, your first task is going to be building a full squad. Let’s face it, you’re probably going to be dealing largely in the free agent and loan market here initially. Ultimately though, you’re going to have to build a bigger squad because as well as they’ve started, the season is tough in the National League with games coming thick and fast. The sad reality is that with a few injuries and suspensions, you’ll probably be in big trouble as it stands. In better news, you’ve got great coaching staff at the club and the players that have remained loyal are generally very good. If the game’s accurate, you’ll also have non-league expert and Luton Town Legend John Still as your Head of Football. At non-league level, you can’t ask for a better judge of players than him. Despite this, FM24 challenges probably don’t get much better than Southend United. A ten point deduction means you’re going to have to scrap for your life if don’t want to end up in the bottom playable league after the first season. Once you’ve overcome that hurdle, you’ve got a rebuild and a road to glory mixed into one save. You can try and take the club back to the Championship, where they were as recently as 2007 (relegated with my club Luton Town). Based on the fall and rise my club has had since then, there is no reason that Southend United can’t be taken to the promised land of the Premier League for the first time. Will you be the person to do it in FM24? I’m hoping to! It’ll be my main One Club Story save on YouTube this year. You can come and follow my daily updates throughout FM24 by clicking here and subscribing.
Those are the three English clubs starting with points deductions in FM24. Do you plan to manage any of them in this year’s edition of the game? If you need inspiration, I’ve got plenty more save idea videos over on YouTube, which you can check out here. Thank you for reading as always, I hope you’re looking forward to this year’s game as much as me!
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The Secrets to Long Term Success in Football Manager
Throughout the history of these top tips blogs, a lot of focus has been on small adjustments or short term changes we can make to help improve our chances in management. Let’s change that up today because in this article, we’re going to focus on our recipe for long term success. For those of you that have been watching my YouTube channel regularly over the years, these tips probably won’t come as a surprise to you. I have strong views regarding the most important elements to success in long term Football Manager careers, so hopefully you’ll find my top tips helpful.
First though, a quick word for our partners at Fanatical where you can pre-order FM24 with 18% off, including full beta access by clicking here. Let’s get back to our secrets for long term success though. It’s time for my first tip!
Let’s start with recruitment, which is often misleadingly suggested to be the most important thing to get right in FM. It isn’t, but it is crucial to a long term career regardless. If you’re planning to manage a club for a long time, perhaps after being used to Journeyman saves or short term challenges, a shift in mindset is essential here. Transfers can no longer just be about the here and now, the quick fix and preparations can’t just be about the current or upcoming window. You must have a long term strategy. The key to this is recruitment focus. This allows you to run several ongoing scouting missions that help you prepare for any eventuality. Let’s face it, unless you’re managing a super club, you’re going to get an offer that’s too good to refuse for one of your stars eventually. If you have strong and consistent recruitment focus processes in place, you’ll be ready to sign your replacement before your player even leaves. Remember to take time when setting up these ongoing scouting missions, include caps on player values, wages, age and playing style to suit your budgets and tactics. Consider it the Brighton model by modern Premier League standards.
Now we’ve dealt with recruitment, let’s move on to developing the players at your club. This isn’t just about training and tactics though! You need a cohesive group, that are socially interactive and have a strong mentality. As a result, take time to prioritise the set up of mentoring groups and training to help cohesion too. Factor in the implications on a player’s social group within the club, in addition to the usual effects on personality, determination and traits (I’ve done plenty of talking about mentoring and cohesion over the past couple of years, which you can find either here or on YouTube). It’s so important to bond your team and develop a strong core of players that get along. It also makes things far easier when integrating new players in the long term, if your whole squad is singing from the same hymn sheet. This can be worth more than any technical development and make the difference in a tight title race!
We finish though with that key area again. One that I maintain is still the most important thing to get right in Football Manager… Staffing! Let me demonstrate my point. How does our mentoring and training advice work without good coaches? It doesn’t. How does our recruitment and scouting advice without good scouts and analysts? It doesn’t. How do you keep players fit and recovering without good physios and sports scientists? You don’t! Having best in class staff for your level is the biggest difference maker you can add in your save. If you’re a young, inexperienced manager, wouldn’t you want quality operators around you to make you look better? Not only that, most clubs won’t have the budget to overhaul the playing squad in the way you want. To upgrade your staffing team is significantly cheaper and often has a more noticeable outcome. To improve players, develop styles and find several better players for a fraction of the cost of just buying one immediately. It’s priceless! If you’re planning on managing a club for the long haul, you must prioritise getting a bigger and better staffing team. It’s more important than anything you can do to your squad!
So those are the top 3 secrets in my recipe for long term success in Football Manager. Do you agree or disagree with them? Let me know and give me any of your other essential must-do’s in a long term FM career. You can watch this blog in video form over on my YouTube channel now, as well as checking out my FM24 plans video. We’ve got plenty of FM24 save idea articles on the way soon, so follow this blog for more! Thanks for reading.
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Tips to Improve Dynamics in Football Manager
We all know that when we’re settled in a job, winning games and playing well, managing dynamics in Football Manager is easy! As soon as that changes though, dynamics and morale can become the bane of a manager’s life. Today, I’m going to give you some of my top tips to help manage your dynamics and morale when things aren’t all rosy on the pitch. First though, a quick word for our partners at Fanatical where you can pre-order FM24 with 18% off, including full beta access by clicking here. Let’s get back to dynamics though. It’s time for my first tip!
At number 3 is an interesting one, it’s contract management. Now you might think ‘why would I want to give a new contract and pay rise to someone that’s contributing to a struggling team’. I’m not just talking about new contracts though. Of course, if players are unhappy due to wanting a new contract, it can be an easily solved problem. In this instance though, I’m talking about simple things you can do to reduce unhappiness. For example, if you have players that are just starting to get unhappy at a lack of playing time, but haven’t yet thrown their toys out of the pram, why not check their squad status? If it’s higher than you’d like it to be, you can normally afford to edge it down by one tier without causing unrest. Keep an eye out for the warning that they might be disgruntled though! With slightly reduced playing demands, you can actually prevent that unhappiness before it occurs and save an additional headache from piling onto your dynamics troubles! You can also get a boost from making more players happy. Simple things like a new contract for your backup goalkeeper or young, fringe players in the squad can make a big impact on the atmosphere at the training ground the following week. With the financial side covered though, let’s move onto individual player-management relations!
At number 2 is individual chats. While not quite as influential as in FM22, this is still a crucial part of player management in both Football Manager and the real footballing world. If you can build strong relationships with players and even become favoured personnel to some, your life is going to be an awful lot easier. Let’s start with the obvious one. If your striker is in a goal drought, it’ll likely be affecting your side’s form. An individual chat with either a little warning or a confidence boost can suddenly bring them back to scoring form though. The same often works for warning players after really poor individual performances both in matches and training. Top tip – A player is unlikely to react badly if you use the first chat option, when praising for a training rating over 8.0 or criticising for one under 6.0. Individual chats don’t often offer the quick fix that the other two tips will (striker goal droughts aside), but they do allow you to keep some form of balance to your dynamics and morale throughout your time at a club.
My number 1 tip is all about training and a number of ways you can use it to your advantage when it comes to dynamics. Firstly, let’s talk about my old favourite screen, mentoring. As we’ve mentioned in several other top 3 videos, mentoring is a great way to both improve personalities and get more players integrated to the core social group. Looks for leaders that are professional and in the team’s main social group to lead your mentoring groups and use them to try and integrate some of your weaker personalities or more problematic complainers.
We’ve also got to talk about team training sessions too. These can be a great way to improve areas of your dynamics. Team cohesion is often a difficult area to improve when you first join a club, so why not add a weekly team bonding session to address it. It’s a great way to increase happiness, cohesion and teamwork within your squad, with the added bonus of reducing fatigue in periods of fixture congestion too. If your schedule is a little lighter or you have less injury prone players in your squad, extra match preparation sessions can be a brilliant way to improve cohesion and tactical familiarity. Training remains the easiest way to improve the team cohesion and managerial support at your club. Whether you’re settling into a new job or going through a tricky period with results, these sessions can be the difference between a turnaround and a sacking!
So those are just my top 3 tips to help improve your dynamics screen in Football Manager. Let me know if you have any other dynamics tips that you swear by, as there’s plenty of others I haven’t covered today. If you enjoyed it, please do follow this blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel for daily Football Manager content and check out my special discount link for FM24 via Fanatical.
Thanks for reading!
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Tips to Reduce Player Fatigue in Football Manager
If you’re managing in certain leagues or countries, you’ll have felt the pain of player fatigue at some point in Football Manager. As you head through the years and get deeper into competitions, the increasingly tight schedule can become a real issue for your players. When polled, nearly half of you said you struggled with this issue in FM23. With that in mind, I thought I’d do something to help you reduce the problem of player fatigue. I’m going to be sharing some of my top tips in three key areas of the game. If you prefer, you can view this content in video format on my YouTube channel here. A quick shout out to HelloFresh UK too, who have kindly partnered with us for August 2023. You can get 40% off your first two boxes and 20% off for two months by clicking here. Back to this one though, let’s start with a broad group of match day related subjects.
It’s time to talk about tactics and the match day in general. This is a big area to cover but there are a number of things you can do during a game to reduce fatigue, especially if you’re winning comfortably. For a start, why not try listening to your medical staff. If they say a player is only fit for 45 minutes or is tired, take notice of that advice. It’s there for a reason after all!
The biggest problem causing fatigue in FM23 is currently tactical styles. The gegenpress has become increasingly popular in Football Manager due to various outlets reporting it to be overpowered in recent years. This is fine at the top end of the game, as we’ve watched a number of great sides do it successfully. Further down the leagues and football ladder in the real world though, most sides don’t have the fitness or game plan to constantly press for 90 minutes. Many teams opt to just do it in spells, at opportune times or only in deeper positions on the pitch. All of these decisions save energy for less fit players. In Football Manager though, this isn’t really reflected. I’ve lost count of how many saves I’ve seen with teams playing high intensity gegenpress in the National League South. This is lovely for the first half a game, but what are you going to do about the game two days later with your 15 passable players? There’s three solutions here.
If you want to stick to your guns and keep using your intense tactic with less fit players, why not train a second tactic alongside it. In any game, once the match is clearly won or lost, you can then switch to an equally familiar low intensity tactic (such as a possession and a low pressing game) to reduce the build up of further unnecessary fatigue for the remaining minutes of the match. If you’re going to rely on your side’s energy to be successful, there’s no point wasting it at times you don’t even need it.
Your next option is to change to a more realistic tactic in general. If you’re at a part-time side with 7 or 8 over 30’s dropping down the football pyramid in your squad, they probably wouldn’t be playing a high-pressing game in real life. Reflect that in FM! Play to your team’s strengths and you’ll usually meet your targets. If you don’t want to do that, I’m afraid you’ll be heading for a squad overhaul. If you choose that option though, I’d probably think about filtering players by their natural fitness attribute!
Let’s move on to a more simple second tip. Yes, it’s one of my old favourites that I love to sing from the rooftops… STAFFING. An area of Football Manager that is so often neglected but can make the world of difference to your career. We’ve talked about the importance of having ‘best in class’ staff for your level in so many of these articles over the years and yes, it can make a difference to fatigue too. Firstly, if you’re leaving general and/or individual training to your coaching staff, you probably want to make sure they’re not buffoons, don’t you? High quality fitness coaches and a good spread of workload across training assignments will ensure better fitness training at your club. I always say good coaches can make bad players better but this one is a simple equation. If your coaches are overworked on the training pitch, your players will probably get outworked on the football pitch. It’s also important to have good medical staff too, as we all know the increasing importance of physiotherapy and sports science in the game now. If you ever have a little money spare at your club, I’d always recommend requesting an extra staff member before spending on your squad!
We’ve now talked about the importance of having good staff, but what can you do on the training ground. Small changes to the training and recovery process between games can change your save and career forever! Let’s start with recovery sessions. You might not like managing general training in Football Manager, you might love it. Either way, this is something you’ll occasionally want to step in and do. Depending on the level you’re managing at, the day after a game will normally be dedicated to either rest or recovery. If you’ve got a decisive game 3 days later though, how much physical training do you really want or need your team to do? Changing one of these sessions to an additional recovery, or even a less demanding tactical session can make the world of difference. Even at the top level, the slightest edge can be a game changer!
On the other side of that, we have individual player recovery. It’s easy to rest players from training completely, but is that always the best solution? I don’t think so. I much prefer to use the training rest screen and adjust the training intensity scheduling. The default training intensity for each level of player condition is fine during pre-season or if you’re only playing once a week. When the high pressure games are coming thick and fast though, it’s the last thing you want! I’d normally make minor changes to this schedule to ensure that players with conditioning in the red are doing no pitch or gym work. Those remaining with anything other than peak condition, I set to train at half intensity. What’s more? Unlike resting players from training completely, they’ll still be working and developing their game. They will also be involved in crucial team cohesion and tactical sessions. I find it makes an enormous difference to player recovery and match performance, so I’d encourage you to make those changes if you’ve got a packed fixture schedule!
So those are my top tips to help reduce fatigue in Football Manager but what’s the advice you swear by when it comes to player condition. We’ve got daily FM23 videos from two long term stories on YouTube. Why not check those out and I’ll see you back here for another new blog post soon!
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Vanarama National League Predictions 2023/24 – Podcast Notes (Behind The Scenes)
Every season, we make our pre-season prediction videos on our Honest Football Podcast YouTube Channel. This season is no different and you find the full National League video here. However, I always promise to share by notes but never really had the means to do so previously. This year though, I have this blog. It’s a little different to my normal posts but an informal glimpse behind the scenes at the research done before each of our prediction videos. We finish our week of predictions with the Vanarama National League today. Be sure to also check out our three EFL predictions videos if you haven’t done so already. Enjoy!
1st. Chesterfield – The best of the rest last season and of course almost spoiled the Notts County party at Wembley with a brilliant display. They’ve stolen some headlines in the transfer window this summer too. Paul Cook has tempted two of his old Wigan players to the National League with Tom Naylor and Will Grigg both excellent additions on paper. They’ve picked up a loan goalkeeper too, which perhaps isn’t surprising after the playoff final. It’s not been the busiest summer as they had a good squad already but the players they have added are of real quality.
2nd. Oldham – After a poor start to last season and even the threat of relegation after David Unsworth’s poor start in charge, Olham finished the season on fire! Due to the late takeover after relegation, they were effectively building their squad through the first half of last year. They’ve been forced into a bit of work this summer after a couple of players were taken by EFL clubs. Overall though, the side is far more settled with two very strong defensive additions including Charlie Raglan. If they carry on how they finished last season, the top 7 is a certainty for me!
3rd. Woking – They’ve stuck to their guns and continued to bring in a core of extremely experienced professionals. The likes of Greg Taylor, Matt Robinson and Robbie Willmott are all great examples of that. They were so disappointing in that playoff game against Bromley at the end of last season, but they’ve got the know how in this squad to be in that mix again.
4th. Hartlepool – Back in the 5th tier following relegation, experience was released in addition to a few top players being picked off by EFL clubs. Hartlepool have signed well though. Dieseruvwe will always pop up with crucial goals, as we saw in Grimsby’s playoff run two seasons ago. The likes of Dolan and Wallace add experience to the spine of the team so overall I think they have enough for the playoffs.
5th. Boreham Wood – They’re always there, aren’t they? It may have been heartbreak against Notts County, but Luke Garrard plays to his team’s strengths and has signed well again this summer. Some good, experienced professionals have moved on but the likes of Balanta and Kwesi Appiah replace that. Timmy Abraham should suit their style with Tom Whelan offering midfield legs. They’ll be there or thereabouts again.
6th. Eastleigh – A very busy summer at Eastleigh but they’ve definitely improved their squad. Lots of experience in the shape of long throw specialist McCallum, Jake Taylor and Chris Maguire, among others. They look like they’re having a real go this season, but can they integrate so many new players and play to their strengths in time?
7th. Bromley – They always overachieve and for as long as Andy Woodman is there I’ll back them. They’ve lost some key players including Sowunmi and star youngster Fisher. In the likes of Josh Passley, Cole Kpekawa and Grant Smith, they’ve signed sensibly again though. The bookmakers have them in the bottom half, but I don’t buy that one bit! Michael Cheek will always score goals too.
8th. Barnet – Pleasing on the eye and with Kamamba scoring for fun, Barnet had a much better season last time around! We were there for the disappointment against Boreham Wood in the playoffs, but it was a season of progress regardless. They’ve added some good players again, with Reece Hall-Johnson potentially being the pick of the bunch. They’ve added some good technicians too, which should suit them well.
9th. Fylde – Built a strong squad under Adam Murray last season on the way to the National League North title. They return to the 5th tier with some expecation and a relatively quiet summer so far. They look to have picked up some of the best players from their former division to bolster their high profile squad. In addition to 26 goal Haughton, they added 23 goal Omotayo from King’s Lynn too. If they can both step up, Fylde could be a big threat!
10th. Rochdale – After a disappointing year, Rochdale have lost several key players to higher division clubs. They’ve added some decent younger players with a point to prove, alongside the immense experience of Adam Clayton. It’s not enough to convince me yet after so many players left, but in a couple of months that situation could easily change.
11th. Dag & Red – It’s been a strange summer at Dagenham so far. Bundles of good players moving on and so far, not quite enough coming in the other way. The players they have added are good, with stength and quality in the spine of the team. If Inih Effiong can bang the goals in, they could challenge for thoser playoffs this season!
12th. Ebbsfleet – They finally came up after the years of expectation! They’ve added some quality too. David Amoo and Hayden White both drop down from the EFL. I don’t think they’ll threaten the top 7 this season, but based on their current squad, they should be very comfortable.
13th. Solihull – After a disappointing season, shining light Andrew Dallas is a massive loss to Barnsley. They’ve lost a few others too but his goals will be so tough to replace. The likes of Josh Labadie and Matt Warburton do add experience, but I’m not sure it’s enough for them to break back into the top 7.
14th. Aldershot – They’re one of the favourites to go down and had another disappointing relegation battle last season. I really like what they’ve done this summer tohough. Three good players from Kings Lynn (I think we know why one of them, Theo Widdrington, is joining). They’ve also added two from Sutton, the experience of Stuart O’Keefe and two or three other good players. At the risk of looking silly again, I think they’ll be asolutely fine!
15th. York – Another busy summer for York after signing so many players last season too. They ended up just surviving after multiple managerial changes so need some stability off the pitch this season. David Stockdale is the biggest name addition, with a real blend of players arriving. I worry the constant churn isn’t going to help them and certainly don’t fancy them for the top 7 like the bookies!
16th. Gateshead – A disappointing FA Trophy final at Wembley for them but they’ve signed ok so far. Archie Mair joins on loan in goal, whilst the likes of Callum Whelan, Ed Francis and Regan Booty improve the spine of the team. I can see them being lower mid table.
17th. Dorking – They’re one of the favourites to go down again and they’ll defy the odds again. They had the second worst defence in the league last season and will hope 38 year old Tony Craig can help with that. They’ve let a lot of squad players move on but kept Jason Prior, who returned to change their fortunes last season. They need more additions but they score goals, which ultimately will just keep them up.
18th. Wealdstone – Another side that are always favourites to go down and always seem to find a way. They did so well last season and don’t have the most glamourous squad on paper, but am I willing to look stupid again? No!
19th. Altrincham – The favourites for relegation and I tipped them to struggle last season, which they did. After letting in 82 goals, defensive additions were always going to be a priority. Dior Angus adds a bit of experience further foward too. I don’t think they’ll do anything special this year, but I don’t expect them to finish bottom like the bookies!
20th. Halifax – After watching them win the FA Trophy at Wembley in May, it’s been a tough summer for Halifax. Senior, Spence and Slew all move on to EFL clubs, with 13 goal Dieseruvwe leaving too. Only Maidenhead survived scoring less goals last season, so they’ll be hoping new striker Aaron Cosgrove has plenty more goals in him than in his non-league loan spells last year! I’m worried for them.
21st. Kidderminster – It’s good to have them back in the National League but they’ve not changed a huge amount so far. The likes of Knight-Percival, Morgan-Smith and Hemmings will be key in providing experience in the squad. I feel they might need a couple of mobile loan players, but as it stands they’ll be in the battle for me.
22nd. Maidenhead – As is often the case for the smaller clubs in the division, they’ve lost some of the regular starters to bigger National League and League Two clubs. They only just scored one a game last season and that was before losing Emile Acquah in the summer. They’ve not added enough yet so hopefully more come in, but at the moment I think they may be in trouble.
23rd. Oxford City – Came up after that thumping of St Albans in the National League South playoff final. They then took Tafari Moore off them too. I think they’ll need to do more work to survive but with the non-league transfer window open most of the season, this bottom end of the table is tricky to call.
24th. Southend – Who knows? Will they start the season, lose points, be able to play at home? What an absolute mess down at Southend. Credit to the manager, coaching staff and so many players for sticking with them, but you’d imagine there will be more departures. They did remarkably well given the backdrop last season, but as it stands they have to be bottom. Hopefully they get a takeover done and start to rebuild, but this season is about their existence now, rather than their position in the table.
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EFL Sky Bet Championship Predictions 2023/24 – Podcast Notes (Behind The Scenes)
Every season, we make our pre-season EFL prediction videos on our Honest Football Podcast YouTube Channel. This season is no different and you find the full Championship video here. However, I always promise to share by notes but never really had the means to do so previously. This year though, I have this blog. It’s a little different to my normal posts but an informal glimpse behind the scenes at the research done before each of our prediction videos. We finish the EFL today with the Championship. Enjoy!
1st. Leeds – If I’m honest, I fancied Leeds big time at the start of the summer. Daniel Farke had been the front runner throughout, a man with an exceptional Championship record. The squad didn’t have many superstars and looked likely to stay largely together. Then the takeover promised to provide a fresh energy to the fans and club. It’s not quite worked out that way though. The takeover took a while and now transfer work is behind, plus players I though could be Championship stars (such as Aaronson, Roca and Kristensen) have moved on. I’m also a bit surprised Forshaw left. The first signing of the summer, Ethan Ampadu, should go towards improving that wretched defensive record, but the key will be signing a goal scorer to replace Rodrigo (such as Piroe) that they’re heavily linked with and keeping the likes of Gnonto for that bit of magic. Don’t forget returning loan player such as Cody Drameh who have starred at Championship level last season too. All of our summer polls here suggested that less people fancy Leeds than the other two relegated clubs. I still instinctively think they’ll finish the highest of the three!
2nd. Norwich – Obviously the headline news is that Teemu Pukki has left, the man that fired Norwich to most of their recent promotions at this level. I like that they did a lot of good transfer work early, but think they’ll need more just yet. The likes of Duffy, Stacey and Barnes could be great additions with Championship know how in abundance. They’ve still got the core of the squad that were expected to gain promotion last season, it’s just whether the likes of Barnes, Idah and Sargent can provide enough fire power. The latter will probably need more than the 13 scored last season! On the day of recording they’ve also just signed Swiss international Christian Fassnacht. They’re my dark horses!
3rd. Leicester – The side that were ‘too good to come down’ for so much of last season. A horrid defensive record for two years, including from set pieces with a number of key defensive injuries, not a good sign for the Championship. Key creative and attacking talent has left as expected. Maddison, Barnes and Tielemans were never likely to stay. Sensible business has followed though! Coady, Winks, Doyle and Hermansen provide a more solid and reliable spine on paper, plus the goals should still flow with Iheanacho, Vardy and Daka at the club. My only two worries are that magic creative spark that the three key losses could have provided and Maresca. We talked about him earlier in the summer but his last managerial role was a disaster with a fancied, experienced team at Parma. They’ll be up there, but as an Italian football fan I can’t be convinced yet!
4th. Middlesbrough – Will Chuba Akpom stay? That’s basically what we’re gambling on here. Boro were goals and wins galore after Michael Carrick replaced Chris Wilder last season, before a whimper in the playoff semi final. They’ll have to get used to sides coming and setting up in that way this season, but will that affect their success? They’ve not had to do a massive amount in the transfer window, with a few talented young additions such as Morgan Rogers and a good, permanent goalkeeper in Seny Dieng. Cameron Archer’s goals have obviously gone, but Akpom and Forss could be a great goal threat, if the former chooses to stay.
5th. Southampton – This is a tricky one to predict at this stage. A lot hinges on the suspected departures of Ward-Prowse and Lavia, then what is done with some of that money. Those aside, the Saints have a good young side on paper. However, it was massively lacking a solid spine in the Premier League. A lot of those will probably benefit from a year in the Championship, however, the constant changes of philosophy and playing style did not help last season. From Nathan Jones six months ago, Russell Martin now comes in with a completely different footballing style, albeit one that may suit this side better. His Swansea side were the 5th worst defence in the league last year, despite their late playoff chase. I just worry Southampton will concede too many silly goals and then struggle when behind. I know many people fancy them this year and the addition of Ryan Manning on a free is clever, but I don’t think they’re ready yet.
6th. Coventry – A penalty kick away after a brilliant season, but the summer was always going to be difficult. Gyokeres had a combined 33 goals and assists last season but Coventry have moved early to replace him with Ellis Simms. They looked far better when returning to two up front in the second half against Luton and Simms could be the perfect partner for Matt Godden alongside. Other signings have been solid again, with Collins, Latibeaudiere and Da Silva likely to add good depth. Will Gustavo Hamer stay? He’s big shoes to fill if he leaves the club. You can never rule Coventry or Mark Robins out though and without the start of season catchup due to stadium chaos, they could be in the mix again!
7th. Millwall – How on earth did they miss out on the playoffs? A 45 minute disaster movie cost them a top 6 place but as always, they’ve strengthened their squad. Bryan and Nisbet are upgrades for players that’ve left, with De Norre adding midfield bite. They’ll always be in the mix but will last year have dealt a psychological blow?
8th. Sunderland – Tony Mowbray did a great job in the circumstances last year. He joined a few days before the summer window shut, had his key strikers either injured for most of the season or recalled on January deadline day and finished the season with no centre halves, which ultimately cost them against our team, Luton, in the playoffs. It’s been a quiet summer but replacing Diallo’s threat, if he doesn’t return, will be crucial. Jobe Bellingham is one of four young players to join so far. It’s the way both Sunderland Mowbray like to work but if they keep Ross Stewart fit this year, they’ll be a threat again!
9th. West Brom – It’s the same issue for West Brom after a very quiet summer so far. They’ve got a very good midfield on paper but lack depth in defence and up top. Dara O’Shea being poached by Burnley doesn’t help that at all. They were very good after Corberan took over and he’ll always make a team solid, but I’m not sure they’ve got enough at present. Two or three good additions in key areas though and I’d back them for the top 6.
10th. Stoke – Let’s talk about a big summer overhaul! Stoke were left with just 7 or 8 senior players this summer as Alex Neil looks to reshuffle the pack and address the malaise that had set in at Stoke. The work looks good so far too. Championship experience in Johnson, Stevens, Rose and Pearson, two top loans in from Wolves. All good additions. With 10 days to go until the season though, their squad is nowhere near ready or deep enough. For Stoke it’s probably going to be a slower start as players integrate, but I can see a late charge coming. I don’t know it’ll be enough for top 6, but I think they’ll break back into the top half this season.
11th. Birmingham – There’s finally been a takeover, the stadium should be fully open again by the New Year and the transfer work has been good! Despite the losses of Chong and Bellingham, in addition to some experienced players being released, I’m really impressed with Birmingham’s work. For players like Bielik, Anderson and Dembele, staying fit will be the important question. Tyler Roberts should add goals and looks a steal. Ethan Laird and Dion Sanderson both join permanently too. I think Birmingham will be very steady this season and a stable year is exactly what they need!
12th. Watford – Well even from a neutral point of view, Watford had a stinker last year. They sacked a manager early, only for him to take their rivals up and finished the season with a side lacking effort, direction and motivation. The big starts have moved on, which I don’t think is a bad thing and Valerien Ismael is rebuilding the side, or was until a transfer ban was placed on them by FIFA. That seems to have been sorted and lifted now, but you can see what Ismael is trying to do. Experienced English, Championship players are coming in to try and create a more reliable spine. Tom Ince has often played his best football under his dad’s management but Livermore and Healey could be good additions. There’s only one question though… How many games will Ismael get? If they don’t start well, he’ll get sacked and Watford will get found out in this incredibly tough Championship.
13th. Bristol City – I think they’ve had a good window so far. As it stands, four really solid additions to strengthen that spine of the team. They still haven’t replaced Semenyo directly and Alex Scott is almost certainly not going to be there come September, but the Robins will be fine again this year!
14th. Preston – An interesting summer for them. Of course they started last season with no goals going in at either end, but how has that been addressed? Well, they’ve added midfield creativity in Jensen and Holmes after Daniel Johnson moved on. Calvin Ramsay could be a great addition but watch out for Layton Stewart. If he can settle in, keep fit and adapt to senior football, we know he’s got an eye for goal. It should be another solid season for Preston, but a top striker on loan and they could be a surprise package.
15th. Hull – It’s a strong Championship this year but I actually like what Hull have done this summer. Liam Rosenior is one of the best young coaches in the EFL, but will his football be exciting enough for owner Acun Ilicali? Liam Delap should add goals, whilst Simons and Vinagre should add quality. I feel they’ve improved but I’m not sure it’s enough for a playoff push yet.
16th. Swansea – Michael Duff replaces Russell Martin, who took Ryan Manning with him to Southampton. Our manager special detailed our thoughts on that. At the time of recording there’s been three good additions so far, but a few more are needed. That will likely hinge on whether Joel Piroe leaves and how much of that money Duff can spend. Swansea’s defensive record was in the bottom five last season but they did score goals and top all the possession stats. I think we’ll see a little more balance from Michael Duff this year, with a few less silly goals conceded. However, without more work in the window, it’ll be middle of the road for them.
17th. Ipswich – The best attack and defence in League One last season, Kieran McKenna gave Ipswich a momentum they hadn’t experienced for years. A number of League One level squad players have left in the summer and few additions have come in. McKenna has suggested he’ll stick with the core and believes it’s good enough, but additions such as Jack Taylor will only help further. I’m not sure they’re currently the top 6 side that people are predicting on paper, but togetherness and momentum, with fans on board, is a dangerous thing in football.
18th. QPR – Everyone is worried about QPR and talking about Ainsworth’s style of play, but hopefully some of their pre-season goals and signings have already addressed those concerns! They’ve added experience in defensive areas with Begovic and Fox and a more youthful look to their attack. This summer has been about getting the right atmosphere in the dressing room and with Lyndon Dykes signing a new deal too, I think QPR will be more comfortable than most are predicting this year.
19th. Huddersfield – I know Neil Warnock stays and he’s proven he can achieve the unthinkable already, but it is a slightly worrying summer. They’ve cleared a bit of the wage bill so far, so I’d expect some big free agents and loans later in the window. Ultimately it’s hard to back against Warnock in this division, but I don’t think it’ll be an easy season. That home momentum will be crucial!
20th. Blackburn – What an earth is going on at Blackburn? Brereton Diaz left as expected but hasn’t really been replaced yet. A couple of free agents and a loan add depth, though Arnor Sigurdsson has already picked up an injury. Now though, we’ve had reports that Jon Dahl Tomasson has threatened to leave over the ‘unclear’ situation at the club, with financial issues also being reported. This is a club that drifted late in the season, as they always seem to do, last year. With the current uncertainty at the club, and if they lose goalkeeper Kaminski too, I just can’t predict a good season as it stands.
21st. Plymouth – I feel bad as this is a little like Rotherham last season. The league is so strong and on paper you find it hard to plot their path to survival. People underestimate the size of this club though. They return to the Championship after a 100 point season and have added a core of talented, young, hungry players to their ranked. I do worry they’ve let a little too much experience leave, but you have to be ruthless when it comes to the quality level. As we saw with Wycombe a couple of years ago, it comes down to belief. You can’t afford to give everyone a head start by showing too much respect, but I trust Schumacher to avoid that. Against all the odds, I think they might survive… just!
22nd. Cardiff – At the start of the summer, particularly with Lamouchi going (as we discussed in our manager special), Cardiff were my favourites to go down. Since then though, they’ve signed a very good front three. All of them have huge question marks over their fitness and Bulut has been criticised in past jobs for his style of play, but they could have added enough magic. Ramsey, Meite and Grant all know English football and can add that much needed fire power. Goutas is a good addition at the back too, but have they got enough this season. I’m really not sure!
23rd. Rotherham – I’m going to do it again and probably look an idiot again but it’s the end of an era at Rotherham first. Richard Wood moves on after a brilliant spell at the club. Ogbene is a huge loss to Luton too. They’ve signed some experienced Championship players in the spine of the team this summer, but I worry about the lack of creative spark and the loss of mobility in wide areas. I like Matt Taylor and I really hope they prove me wrong again, but given last year was the first in eight that Rotherham hadn’t changed division, you can surely understand why I’m predicting it.
24th. Sheffield Wednesday – I’m far more worried about them than I was directly after their promotion. They came into the division with huge momentum after the biggest playoff comeback of all time. Since then, it’s been chaotic. Darren Moore left, Xisco replaces him but with a month of the transfer window to refresh an ageing squad lost. His press conference was then turned into an owner’s ranting monologue. Away from that sideshow though, they haven’t done enough transfer work. I rate Xisco but at the time of recording there’s only two additions to the squad and even he is telling fans they should be concerned. It’s hardly what you want to hear after the euphoria of promotion. It’s a great club with a largely brilliant fanbase, but I am worried about them this year with that momentum largely lost.
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EFL Sky Bet League One Predictions 2023/24 – Podcast Notes (Behind The Scenes)
Every season, we make our pre-season EFL prediction videos on our Honest Football Podcast YouTube Channel. This season is no different and you find the full League One video here. However, I always promise to share by notes but never really had the means to do so previously. This year though, I have this blog. It’s a little different to my normal posts but an informal glimpse behind the scenes at the research done before each of our EFL predictions videos. We did League Two yesterday, so let’s move onto League One today. Enjoy!
1st. Derby – Lots of experience in and out for Paul Warne, with Sonny Bradley and Curtis Nelson adding leadership in defence. The likes of Kane Wilson, Callum Elder and Conor Washington add quality too. Will the latter and James Collins be able to replace the 24 goals lost from David McGoldrick? Jason Knight is also a loss in the middle of the park, but surely Derby won’t miss out on promotion this year.
2nd. Bolton – They’ve definitely strengthened again this summer, with strong additions in goal following James Trafford’s loan. Dan Nlundulu and Carlos Mendes Gomes are players with a point to prove and bundles of potential going forward. They’ve not lost much quality either, so things are looking good for them. Crucially they have goals in their team!
3rd. Reading – Their transfer embargo is finally lifted and they got a manager in place in the end. They’ve obviously lost a lot of big earners and experienced players, so we were always going to see a younger squad this year. A couple from Cambridge, including top scorer Sam Smith, plus Lewis Wing and Charlie Savage have arrived already at the time of recording. How many more will join over the next month? I think enough!
4th. Charlton – I really like Charlton’s work so far this summer. Harry Isted starred at Barnsley in the second half of last season and they’re starting to add attacking creativity. With the addition of 20 goal striker Alfie May from Cheltenham, they’re my dark horses this year. If only they could tempt back Rak-Sakyi on loan again, they’d probably be one of the most frightening attacks in the division.
5th. Blackpool – Neil Critchley is back but without a number of stars from his last stint that’ve moved on. We’ve seen some good League One players added already and I’d back the returning manager to do well. I still think they need to add a bit more creativity to replace the likes of Anderson, Bowler and the goals of Jerry Yates. Shayne Lavery just couldn’t get going last season, but I think this year could be a big one for him.
6th. Peterborough – We obviously wait to see how they deal with the playoff heartbreak, as well as the losses of Jack Taylor, Joe Ward and Frankie Kent. They’ve continued their regular signing policy, but Peter Kioso is one to watch out for if he can stay fit! The big blow though is last season’s top scorer and captain appears to be off. Jonson Clarke-Harris will be a huge loss to the team, but Posh will be hoping Tshimanaga finds his goal form alongside new skipper Mason-Clark!
7th. Portsmouth – A big summer turnover at Fratton Park with a number of key players nabbed from other League One clubs. It’s definitely a more youthful, technical and mobile squad overall, but will it be enough to lead Pompey back to the top 6? I’m honestly not sure. It’s be great to see them back in the Championship but there’s not enough to convince me just yet.
8th. Wycombe – Quite a few have moved on in this window but the additions of Vincent-Young, Leahy and Keogh provide experience defensively. Leahy is the perfect successor for Joe Jacobson too. They’ve got some talented Premier League youngsters on loan, so I’ll be interested to watch their progress.
9th. Oxford – Lots of good technicians coming in, with Rodrigues from Notts County a real potential coup. I’d expect Mark Harris to do well in League One and help them improve on the dismal season last year. I’d expect one or two more additions yet.
10th. Bristol Rovers – Lots of League One experience and know how in their signings so far. I don’t think they’ve done enough to progress to a playoff push, but should be comfortable again. They’ve got goals in their side but they’ve always been ropey defensively. They had the worst defensive record outside the bottom four last year and the experienced additions of James Wilson and George Friend should help that defensively.
11th. Lincoln – They’ve lost a coule this summer but Tyler Walker and Reeco Hackett could be really interesting attacking additions. The ability to stretch defences and score goals had been missing, so these two may rectify that for Lincoln. Jaden Brown is a good signing on paper, so decent work so far from Lincoln.
12th. Stevenage – I obviously watched them live 4 or 5 times at home last season and they were very impressive. Aggressive, front footed and often leaving three up in attack. The summer transfer window would suggest a slightly more compact approach this season. Goalscorers Luke Norris and Danny Rose move on and stay in League Two, whilst there’s a plethora of midfield replacements. Both Louis and Nathan Thompson add defensive minded experience, with Alex MacDonald joining from Gillingham too. They’ve added four solid professionals from fellow League One sides too and got Taye Ashby-Hammond back in goal. They probably still need a striker but I think they’ll be ok.
13th. Barnsley – They’ve been charged by the EFL and have some issues off the pitch, but they’ve also lost some stars on it too. Skipper Mads Andersen steps up to the Premier League and they’ve also lost Brad Collins, despite being unable to tempt Harry Isted back to Oakwell. This leaves Barnsley reliant on a loan goalkeeper, in addition to a number of younger signings from the lower leagues. Can Andy Dallas step up to League One?
14th. Burton – They’ve been busy again with lots of ins and outs. I like what they’ve done so far this summer but they often flatter to deceive. We know Cole Stockton can score goals at this level, whilst Rekeem Harper and Mason Bennett add quality from midfield areas. They’ve improved defensively too, taking Jamal Blackman and Jake Caprice from Exeter. I think Burton will push the top half this season.
15th. Leyton Orient – They were brilliant to run away with the League Two title towards the end of last season. Paul Smyth and goalkeeper Vigouroux are key losses, but they’ve added some good young players including Ethan Galbraith. They’ve got match winners in their side though and shared out the goals last season. Two new additions up front might change that this year!
16th. Fleetwood – Scott Brown has a new deal but it’s been a relatively quiet window for Fleetwood so far. They’ve added real quality and experience with both Danny Mayor and Ryan Broom. He’s also used his links with Celtic in the loan market as he looks to bolster the squad. I think it’ll be another mid table season for them.
17th. Wigan – The chaos and circus off the pitch is over but it’s cost them 8 points already. They also lost loads of experienced players as a result of that and relegation. They’ve often for a younger set of replacements so far, with Arsenal’s Matt Smith and Liam Shaw catching the eye. Callum McManaman returns to help old team mate Shaun Maloney. I think they’ll have enough to make up the extra points but they need Callum Lang to have a similar season to their last in League One!
18th. Northampton – They’ve signed some high performing defenders from League Two last season, but they’ll need to do more work yet. They’re a little light in a few areas so I’d expect some late work. In Sam Hoskins they have a natural goalscorer though, which could be crucial in the battle for survival!
19th. Cambridge – Just about survived on the final day, with a large turnover of the squad following. There’s plenty, including top scorer Sam Smith, moving on to League One rivals and whilst the additions so far have been good, there’s probably not enough of them going forward to convince me of a consistent goal threat (yes I know they’ve scored loads in pre-season). They’re a solid side with a good Head Coach but again, where are the goals?
20th. Port Vale – A lot of ins and outs at Port Vale, who have added some key experience in the middle of the park with Conor Grant and Jason Lowe. As followers of Northern Irish football, the addition of Kofi Balmer on loan from Palace is one to watch too! He’ll be crucial in helping them try to avoid conceding over 70 goals again this year.
21st. Cheltenham – There’s no doubt they’ve lost some important players this summer, with 20 goal top scorer Alfie May moving to Charlton. He accounted for almost half of their goals last season and as we record this, he hasn’t been replaced yet. At the back though, Luke Southwood joins permanently. Liam Smith and Curtis Davies add great experience in defence too. I just wonder where the goals are coming from!
22nd. Shrewsbury – Leahy and Pennington are gone from defence but Shrewsbury have got plenty coming in. Some good midfield loan additions including Kenneh and Luton man Elliot Thorpe. Carl Winchester rejoins after loan to add stability, whilst generally the club have opted for younger players with a point to prove. Leahy was also top scorer last year though and they haven’t yet added a goalscoring threat. With Steve Cotterill replaced by Matty Taylor, who’s not had the best start to his managerial career, I’m a little worried about them this season.
23th. Exeter – I’m a bit worried about Exeter after losing a number of players this summer. Key and Collins will be big losses among others, with young or non-league replacements need to step up quickly. Though his departure was for off the field reasons, Jevani Brown’s goals will be missed. Tom Carroll could provide important experience in midfeld. Sam Nombe is going to be so important. If he can’t score as many as last year, Exeter are in trouble.
24th. Carlisle – They’ve moved on ageing top goalscorer Kristian Dennis, who’s role faded towards the end of last season. They’ve generally added younger players from higher levels which adds an element of the unknown. Sam Lavelle is a good addition at the back and I instinctively feel they might be alright, but there’s not a great deal of proven League One quality or goals in the side for the relegation favourites. As a result, against my initial instinct, I’ll put them in my bottom four.
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EFL Sky Bet League Two Predictions 2023/24 – Podcast Notes (Behind The Scenes)
Every season, we make our pre-season EFL prediction videos on our Honest Football Podcast YouTube Channel. This season is no different and you find the full League Two video here. However, I always promise to share by notes but never really had the means to do so previously. This year though, I have this blog. It’s a little different to my normal posts but an informal glimpse behind the scenes at the research done before each of our EFL predictions videos. Over the next 4 days alongside our YouTube videos, I’ll be posting my notes for each league here. Enjoy!
1st. Stockport – After missing out on penalties in the playoff final last year, they’ve added the highest profile name of the summer at this level in Nick Powell. Behind the headlines though, there are a number of other very solid signings including Ibou Touray and Billy Chadwick among others A few players have moved on but I think the squad is in better shape overall. If they can avoid the slow start from last season, they’ll be big contenders.
2nd. Notts County – After promotion, in spite of John Bostock’s panenka penalty, Notts County have signed well. Dan Crowley replaces Ruben Rodrigues, probably the only big blow of the summer for them. Randall, Stone and McGoldrick are all really good additions. Can Macauley Langstaff step up of he stays? If so, I can’t see them being anywhere than in a promotion race.
3rd. Gillingham – They finished the season brilliantly with the club united again after the takeover last season. With the experienced quality of Jonny Williams, Scott Malone and Max Clark added, as well as Masterson from QPR, I think Gillingham are going to be in great shape this year.
4th. Wrexham – Fairly quiet summer but we all know the quality in the side. A handful playing direct to Mullin and Palmer, with quality like Elliot Lee too. Their weakness last season was definitely in defence, but Will Boyle adds quality, as well as the late signing of the experience Ben Foster last season.
5th. MK Dons – Lots of bigger, experienced names go out of the door after that final day relegation. I like the work they’ve done so far though. MJ Williams and Alex Gilbey provide quality in League Two, with Mo Eisa sure to score goals at this level. Can they add a more regular threat whilst playing out from the back at a pedestrian pace.
6th. Doncaster – A big year for Grant McCann who will be hoping to provide stability after multiple manager changes last season. There’s been some clever signings with the experience of Richard Wood and the goals of Joe Ironside. They’ve picked up some top National League players from last season too, with a good blend of youth and quality. I fancy them this year!
7th. Bradford – After a better season it’s been another decent summer for Bradford on paper. Tyler Smith add depth in attack with good experienced defensive minded additions in Kevin McDonald and Ash Taylor. It’s a good squad with other additions too but will it be enough to turn some of those 16 draws into wins this year? I’ve gone for Andy Cook’s goals to just edge them in above the other four.
8th. Mansfield – Joint top scorers last year and have signed a number of defensive reinforcements this season, as well as keeping Will Swan. I’m still a little worried about the age of some of their midfielders, but they’ll be in and around that top 7 battle again.
9th. AFC Wimbledon – After a shocking season, I know they’re not being backed, but I really like what they’ve done this summer. Their away kit is the best thing in the division this year and there are a number of signings I’m really impressed with. I’m worried about a slow start with so many signings, but I think they’ll finish far higher than the bookies are predicting.
10th. Salford joint top scorers last year – A few players lost this summer but replaced pretty well. Experience joins from higher levels with Luke Garbutt, Curtis Tilt and Alex Cairns. They’re always in and around the mix and almost made the final last season.
11th. Tranmere – Brought in Luke Norris from Stevenage and Kristian Dennis from Carlisle adds a combined 30 league two goals to this side from last season. Haven’t done enough elsewhere to make up the gap yet, but should at least score one a game this season.
12th. Accrington – Lots of good young players in as always, but may need one year before returning to a promotion battle.
13th. Grimsby – They’re hard to call this year. Obviously without John McAtee but Rekeil Pyke, Danny Rose and Donovan Wilson add attacking threat. It’s been a fairly big squad overhaul but they’ve got a very solid squad again.
14th. Newport County – McLoughlin from Salford and Morris from Grimsby are solid additions, but a lot of players out as well. Can Bogle deliver the goals again.
15th. Morecambe – Probabaly the biggest squad overhaul of any side in the division so far. No doubt some good players in to replace a number of key players leaving, but I don’t think they’re in better shape.
16th. Walsall – A fair overhaul this summer but another club that needs stability in the dugout. I worry they won’t start quickly enough to threaten the top 7.
17th. Swindon – A quiet window so far. Mid table for me unless that changes in the coming weeks.
18th. Sutton – Struggled for goals last season so will be hoping Harry Smith can replicate his loan form from Barnet. He’s one of many good signings from non-league football. I’ll be watching them on the opening day and I think they’ll have a solid year.
19th. Forest Green – Matty Taylor could adds goals if he stays fit, alongside a number of very decent young additions. An unproven manager could go either way, but they’ve lost experience everywhere. I think this’ll be a rebuilding season.
20th. Barrow – After losing 15 goals Josh Gordon to Oxford and Brough to Northampton, Barrow have signed sensibly this summer. They started on fire last season but eventually drifted slightly. I don’t think they’ll be in any real danger, but I can’t see them being in the mix again.
21st. Crewe – A bit of a stand still summer in my opinion, could drift slightly down the table. No suggestion the lack of goals has been addressed at this stage.
22nd. Harrogate – A number of defensive additions this summer following their poor goals against record last season. They have got goals in the team though and after a relatively busy window with lots of younger players coming in, the aim will probably be to survive again.
23rd. Crawley- Worst defence other than relegated Hartlepool last year. They’ve lost a few players to League Two rivals and focused on adding from the lower leagues. Having watched a bit of St Albans, the signing of defender Joy Mukena interests me. Luca Ashby-Hammond will be crucial in goal, but Dom Telford’s goals will probably decide their fate this year!
24th. Colchester – Lowest scorers in the division last season. A huge number of extremely experienced players leave and so far it’s largely been young loan players in to replace them. At the moment, I’m really worried about them, though I’m sure there will be far more transfer work to come.
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My Top 3 FM23 Superstitions
Right then, is anybody here superstitious? You may have noticed over the past week or so, I’ve been asking about your favourite Football Manager superstitions on Discord, the YouTube community page and social media. Well, there was a reason for that! In this mini two part series, I’m going to be sharing my biggest FM23 supersitions with you today, before reacting to some of your most bizarre and common ones next week. If you wish, you can see this article in video format over on my YouTube channel. For now though, let’s head straight into my top Football Manager superstitions, starting with number 3.
Let’s start with the most popular old classic because we’ve all been there, haven’t we? The goals are flowing, the wins are racking up and the momentum seems to be well in your favour. Then disaster, it’s time for work, study or bed! You close the game looking forward to getting back to your brilliant team later, except when you return and load up the game again, you’re met by a bunch of unrecognisable strangers. A disjointed team that can’t score, get a result or even string three passes together. Your form evaporates simply because you had the indecency to close the game. Of course it’s an old favourite superstition and many of you have mentioned it over the past few days, but I couldn’t leave it out of this top 3. If you haven’t closed the game though, let’s move onto a particular in-game situation. Here’s number 2.
Well this is one that seems more apparent than ever this year. At number two is penalties. Now that may seem a vague statement, but there are several elements to this superstition for me. Firstly, let’s talk about using the ‘change taker’. Do this at your peril! Have you ever changed penalty taker and been successful? It’s pretty rare. Depending on the season, the Premier League penalty success rate floats between 75-85%. I’m going to claim that in FM23, that percentage at least halves if you change taker. That’s not even the biggest issue either! Let’s talk about goal scoring form. You can have the best penalty taker in the world. Have you got Mr reliable, James Milner? Have you got strikers with a penalty success rate of over 90%, such as Ivan Toney or Callum Wilson? Let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter. If your striker is in a goal drought or your player is in a position that doesn’t allow them to score many other goals, you’re in big trouble! The specific skill and mindset of taking a penalty is not reflected too well in FM23, meaning goal scoring form plays far more of a role than it should in whether a penalty is scored in game. I could almost accept this from a striker, as much as I disagree with the concept. However, for this to affect players that wouldn’t even be expected score regularly from open play is scandalous! Can you tell this superstition has bruised me one too many times? Well it’s nothing compared to number 2. A drumroll for my biggest Football Manager superstition please…
Those who have watched my videos and streams over the years will already know what I’m going to say. I talk about it a lot! One or two of you have mentioned this as well. Making subs or tactical changes during a highlight, oh my kryptonite! I’ve lost count of how many times it’s happened over the years. I’ve also lost count of how many times I’ve cancelled pending changes and repeated
the same actions twice, just to avoid the curse. The curse of conceding when tactical changes are pending. To put into perspective how I feel about this superstition, it’s occurred almost as often as my big game red card curse in FM23. I’m sure it’s mostly in my head, as frankly I won’t remember all of the times this situation hasn’t lead directly to a goal. However, I cannot be convinced this isn’t coded into the game. It’s plagued my thoughts whilst playing Football Manager for years, but thank you for telling me that I’m at least not alone with this bizarre superstition.So those are my top 3 superstitions in FM23. Do I share any of them with you or do you think
I’m stupid for being superstitious about the game to start with? If you haven’t already told me your biggest Football Manager superstitions then please let me know and I’ll include as many as possible in next week’s article. Subscribe to my YouTube Channel to stay up to date with daily FM23 content. We’ll be back there with the usual long term stories tomorrow, before I return next week to react to your biggest FM superstitions.
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